Professional Development Meetings (PDM)

APICS Gold Award
 

May 2018 Meeting

Wednesday, 9 May 2018
Location: Youngest Brother Restaurant, 310 Robinson Ave., Newburgh, NY (see directions map below)
Social/Menu Ordering: 6:00 PM - 6:30 PM
Presentation:
6:30 PM - 7:30 PM
Dinner:
7:30 PM - 8:30 PM
Cost:
N/A; dinner will be ordered from the menu & each attendee will be responsible for their order
Reservation:
RSVP via the registration link (see below)

Our Presentation

The “Flaw of Averages”

How Our Methods Doom Our Estimates And What We Can Do About It

Estimates are critical to most, if not all, businesses. Despite the critical nature of estimates, most of the techniques do not give good results. As a result, we jeopardize schedules, profits, customer relationships, and employee morale far too frequently. Why are our estimates so bad?

Many of the estimates that we rely upon are generated by using “average” assumptions to give expected outcomes. Average inputs should give average results, right? Wrong! In almost any system of reasonable complexity, average inputs will not generate average outputs. As a result, many of our estimates are overly optimistic and hence overly risky. Even in those rare situations where average inputs do generate average results, the actual outcome will almost never be at the average that was estimated. Therefore, it is critical for good decision making to generate estimates that include a view of the likely variability of the outcome. Decisions made without knowledge of likely variability are inherently risky and doomed to fail.

Quality Calculation Graph

There is a better way. Dave Northcutt has successfully used relatively simple techniques to dramatically improve the quality of estimates over a 35-year career.

In this presentation, Dave will discuss:

  • Why properly understanding historical data is critical for building good estimates
  • Why using averages and static analyses to produce estimates often leads to incorrect results and provides no insight into the range of possible outcomes
  • Why understanding the likely variability in our assumptions—and how that variability interacts—is critical to building a realistic model for estimating
  • How relatively simple techniques such as Statistical Process Control and Monte Carlo Simulation can dramatically improve both our estimates and our insight
  • How these techniques can help us understand and plan for the inevitable risk that exists in every estimation exercise

Our PDM Presenter

Dave Northcutt is a retired Industrial Statistician with over 35 years of experience driving improvements in the IT industry. Dave was most recently an IBM Distinguished Engineer specializing in data analysis, predictive modelling, and continual improvement in IBM’s services business. Dave has worked with teams around the world to help them improve their businesses by helping them to understand their data. Throughout his career, Dave has always sought to make the teams he worked with self-sufficient, not simply give them the answers. Dave holds Master’s degrees in Economics (Northwestern), Computer Science (Univ. of Illinois at Chicago), and Statistics (Rutgers).

Wednesday Pasta Special Menu (can order off the regular menu, too), PDM Registration & Restaurant Information

Youngest Brother Restaurant Menu
 

If you are going to attend this Professional Development Meeting, please fill out and submit this registration request.

Registration Deadline is the End of the Business Day, Monday, 7 May 2018.

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June 2018 Meeting

TBD

Past PDMs

This is a Listing of Our Past PDMs, by Date, with Topics Presented

Date

Speaker Topic

Downloadable File

11 April 2018

Plant Tour of IBM Manufacturing in Poughkeepsie, NY

N/A

14 March 2018

An Analytics-Based Quality Management System

Download
0

15 February 2018

Robotic Automation

Download
0

8 November 2017

Present For Impact

Download
0

13 September 2017

ISO 9001:2015 - Top Business Management’s Leadership Role to Review and Manage Product and Service Quality Performance in a Planned ‘Management Review’

N/A

14 June 2017

Lean Performance Indicators - A Road Map for Supply Chain and Operations Success

N/A

10 May 2017

FMEA: Failure Modes and Effects Analysis

N/A

12 April 2017

Plant Tour of LSI Industries in New Windsor, NY

N/A

9 November 2016

Agile Software Development: The Case For Replacing The User Story With A Business Story

Download
0

12 October 2016

Plant Tour of VirTis Brand of SP Scientific in Gardiner, NY

N/A

8 June 2016

18 Ways to Improve Your LinkedIn® Profile

Download
0

11 May 2016

Improve Your Business With Designed Experiments

N/A

13 April 2016

Gold Mining With Kaizen Tools

N/A

9 March 2016

The Marriage of ISO and Lean Six-Sigma

N/A

11 November 2015

Process Behavior Analysis

Download
0

16 September 2015

The Dating Game - A Practitioner’s Guide to Supplier Selection

N/A

10 June 2015

Impossible Projects

Download
0

13 May 2015

Data-Driven Marketing: What IBM Has Learned Through Its Use Of Data

N/A

8 April 2015

Cycle Counting...What You Know...What You Don't Know

N/A

11 March 2015

Gain Valuable Insights into Your Competitive Edge

N/A

12 November 2014

Tired of Always Getting the Wrong Software for Your Business Operation?

Download
0

8 October 2014

18 Ways to Improve Your LinkedIn® Profile

Download
0

17 September 2014

Superior Demand Planning with Statistical Modeling

N/A

11 June 2014

Laboratory Accreditation for Testing Labs (Ask the Assessor?)

N/A

14 May 2014

Student Presentation: Challenges Facing U.S. Industrial Manufacturing in 2014 with a Specific Focus on the Mid-Hudson Valley - Part 2
Main Presentation: Build Success - Manage Your Company Culture

N/A

9 April 2014

Student Presentation: Challenges Facing U.S. Industrial Manufacturing in 2014 with a Specific Focus on the Mid-Hudson Valley - Part 1
Main Presentation: The Idea-Driven Organization

N/A

12 March 2014

Training the Industrial Athlete of the Future

N/A

13 November 2013

Total Cumulative Lead Time - Manufacturing’s Critical Path: What’s the probability that you will deliver on-time?

N/A

18 September 2013

The Master Production Schedule: Master of All Schedules

Download
0

12 June 2013

Do You Know the Impact Poor Quality is Having on Your Supply Chain and Its Impact to Your Business?

N/A

8 May 2013

Where is Your De-Coupling Point?

N/A

10 April 2013

Inventory Management: Learning Our ABCs

Download
0

13 March 2013

St. Francis Hospital takes the Challenge to Continually Improve Patient Safety and Clinical Quality

N/A

14 November 2012

Sales and Operations Planning: Beyond the Basics

N/A

10 October 2012

Value Stream Mapping (VSM) Continuous Loop Simulation

N/A

19 September 2012

We Can't Fix It If We Don't Know What's Broken...An MRP Exercise

N/A

13 June 2012

Understanding the Fundamentals of MRP

N/A

9 May 2012

Quality Service Skills

N/A

11 April 2012

Navigating Your Career Path...in this rapidly changing world

N/A

14 March 2012

Master Scheduling: The Paradigm

Download
0

9 November 2011

Cut Through the Hype – A Fresh Approach to ERP Selection

N/A

12 October 2011

The Match Game

N/A

21 September 2011

The Status of Mount Saint Mary College’s School of Business

N/A

15 June 2011

Visual Tools for Process Improvement in Healthcare

N/A

18 May 2011

Navigating Your Career Path...in this rapidly changing world

N/A

13 April 2011

Resumes & Interviews: How to Organize & Present Your Expertise

N/A

9 March 2011

If You Think Requirements Engineering Is Just For The IT Folks…Think Again

N/A

10 November 2010

Lean For The Office

N/A

13 October 2010

21st Century Manufacturing Not Without The Basics

N/A

15 September 2010

Lean in Healthcare

N/A

12 May 2010

Lean Eyes

N/A

14 April 2010

Take the Mystery Out of Six Sigma

N/A

10 March 2010

Alcoa’s Real-World Experiences Applying Kaizen

N/A

13 January 2010

Value Stream Mapping and Plant Layout

N/A

9 December 2009

Visual Basics

N/A

Past Workshops

This is a Listing of Our Past Workshops, by Date, with Topics Presented

Date

Workshop Topic

20 April 2016

Master Scheduling Workshop

20 April 2016

Sales & Operations Planning Workshop

5 November 2014

Demystifying Material Requirements Planning (MRP) Workshop

14 & 15 May 2014

Lean Sigma Yellow Belt Workshop

9 April 2014

Demystifying Material Requirements Planning (MRP) Workshop - Joint with Tappan Zee Chapter - Held at Tappan Zee Location

10 September 2013

Cycle Counting - The Road to Enlightenment (1/2 day)

10 September 2013

Inventory Optimization - It's Time to Better Manage Inventory (1/2 day)

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